Real Estate New York group

Market Update September 2010
Real Estate New York group continues 10% of our commission rebate up to $1,000 details

Real Estate New York group continues REBATE

After much soul searching, the sales associates and brokers of Real Estate New York Group have agreed to extend our 10% commission rebate (details) until Thanksgiving. For while this is a direct cut in our income at a time when we are all coming out of a tough year, the real estate market in New York is still struggling toward recovery. We believe our aid in helping New Yorkers will benefit our community for years to come. We are all in this together.

Also see our discounted Full Service Seller Commission

If you were fortunate enough to write a contract before April 30, 2010 you can cash in now and not as a tax deduction next year. read more

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In Defense of Home Ownership

It’s hard to read the headlines and not conclude that becoming a homeowner is a terrible idea.

This week, the National Association of Realtors announced that existing-home sales in July had fallen an astounding 25.5 percent from the previous year. Sure, there was a federal tax credit in place last summer. But with single-family home sales at their lowest level since 1995 and unemployment still stubbornly high, home prices may fall further.

In the meantime, millions of homeowners are still far underwater, and government programs to help them have fallen well short of their goals. More foreclosures are coming, casting a deeper shadow over home prices. So it’s hardly surprising that the conventional wisdom says that home values will never again rise faster than inflation. In the meantime, millions of homeowners are still far underwater, and government programs to help them have fallen well short of their goals. More foreclosures are coming, casting a deeper shadow over home prices. So it’s hardly surprising that the conventional wisdom says that home values will never again rise faster than inflation.

But as with stocks and the weather, it is dangerous to assume any certainty in the housing market. And by wallowing too much in the misery of others, people looking for a new place to live run the risk of thinking every home purchase will end in regret, at least financially.

Many still could, if they buy in hard-hit areas where prices could fall further.

But a mortgage is still a form of long-term forced savings, after all. This is more important than ever, since fewer people have access to generous pensions than they did during the last big housing slump. A 401(k) or similar plan is no bargain, either, with its erratic returns and employer matches that come and go as the economic winds shift. Social Security is also likely to be less generous, and Medicare will probably cost more.

Besides, owning a home isn’t just about what shows up on a net worth statement — something that bears repeating after all the “investing” that people thought they were doing when buying homes over the last 10 or 15 years. Many of these more qualitative factors, from living free of a landlord’s whim to having access to a good school district or retirement community, haven’t changed and probably never will.

Read more from The New York Times by RON LIEBER

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Paying Off the House in 15 Years

A growing number of homeowners are choosing to pay down their mortgages at a faster rate--even if it means a substantial jump in their monthly payments.

Between January and June, 26% of homeowners who refinanced chose a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, according to data from CoreLogic, a provider of financial, property and consumer information. During all of 2009, 18.5% of borrowers who refinanced opted for a 15-year term.

What's prompting the shift to shorter loans? Historically low interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages.

Homeowners are doing the math and realizing that rates have fallen enough so the increase in payment between a new 15-year mortgage and their current loan is no longer unbearable for their budgets, says Bob Walters, chief economist at online lender Quicken Loans.

The average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.86% for the week ending Aug. 26, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgage rates.

Read more from The Wall Street Journal by AMY HOAK

U.S. Home Prices Rose More Than Forecast in June

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose more than forecast in June from a year earlier, reflecting the influence of a government tax incentive and a sign the market was stabilizing before sales plunged in July.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increased 4.2 percent from June 2009, the group said today in New York. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 3.5 percent advance.

Read more from Bloomberg

Real Estate New York Group at iRENY.mobi

You can now use your smartphone: Blackberry, iPhone, Android, Blazer, Nokia, Opera Mobile, Palm, Pocket PC, Samsung Windows CE, Zune, Motorola Browser, and more to search the MLS, request showings, set up automatic cell phone alert listing notifications(as noted below), and First Look auto emailed listings at: http://iRENY.mobi (beta)

In addition, you can just visit the main Real Estate New York website at http://RENY.net with a smart phone and you should be taken to the mobile site.

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Home Tweat Home

Get Best Home of the Day Tweets FREE* at: http://twitter.com/HomeTweatHome
formerly: myReny, which is now the user name for
Capital Region Real Estate News

Each day Real Estate New York Group staffers pick the best
new listings based on condition, price, location, size,
and esthetics. Previous days Tweets are also available for a fast overview of the best
and most recent new listings.

Also, receive instant free* cell phone alerts when a home that
meets your requirements on First Look comes on the market.
Alerts are sent as voice or text messages.

Click to register for cell phone for alerts.

Privacy statement: your phone number is never given out for any reason.
Nor will anyone call uninvited.

*Your cell phone carrier may charge for the text message or voice notification.

Not Getting First Look Listings?

Most often this is caused by the clients spam filter stopping the email listing from arriving.

Usually this can be remedied by including: Email@ParagonMessaging.com as a Safe Sender or white listing the above email address as safe. If help is needed to do this you may contact:

Dennis Maier 518-312-4030 extension #1 or 888-749-3384 toll free

Tell a Friend

If you know someone who may benefit from our monthly market update please forward this page. To sign up for our free, no obligation, market update click here: Market Update SignUp

Archives

We've been asked to again include links to past market updates. But since our stories link to other web sites over which we have no control we only want to link to our most recent issues. Otherwise, the article links may fail to work as they once did.

The Skinny: Video Market Update

Real Estate New York is now Real Estate New York Group

As of September 1, 2010 Real Estate New York has officially changed its name to: Real Estate New York Group as a licensed New York State C Corporation under the parent corporation: The Albany Professional Team, inc. DBA APT Realty, inc.

Doom of Capital Region Real Estate Greatly Exaggerated

Recent headlines give the impression that Capital Region real estate is sinking fast.  Sales numbers are down nearly 50% for the month of July alone. 

These statistics, while sobering, are a result of the glut of sales closed in June due largely to the end of the Federal Housing Stimulus plus the strict tightening of lender requirements. 

But while the decline in sales numbers is bad news for Realtors it is excellent--even necessary--news for home buyers. This is because the value of regional homes is actually up between 8% and 16%, largely reflecting the greater negotiating power of high-end buyers picking up some bargains and record low interest rates providing increases buying power (see below).  None of these statistical factors affects the underlying value of the market which has risen substantially in the last ten years.  

This steep rise was also largely a result of external forces as deregulation removed the safeguards that prevented large scale underwriting of risky loans which precipitated the Sub-Prime crisis. 

These same lenders now seem only interested in borrowers who can prove they really don’t need the money. This too will level out as the financial markets return to normal and banks freely engage in mortgage lending as their single most secure asset class.  Stocks and bonds, insurance funds, derivatives, and even entire countries may fail.  But under all is the land. 

And while perceived property values may fluctuate downward, as they have since the first housing crash in England in the mid 1800’s epitomized by the Third Duke of Buckingham’s underwater palace and felt by the majority of economically developed nations ever since, they have always returned. 

Today, our strong local area economy resists crashes by providing a secure source of jobs in the state government, hospitals, universities, and the emerging tech industry.

See: Why the Recession Spared America's Dying Cities by Derek Thompson of Atlantic Magazine

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Fewer U.S. homeowners have ‘underwater mortgages

A smaller percentage of U.S. homeowners were saddled with "underwater mortgages" in the second quarter as more homes entered the foreclosure process even as price declines slowed, real estate website Zillow.com said Monday.

Fewer homeowners with so-called underwater mortgages — where the amount owed on the mortgage exceeds the home's value — is nevertheless a positive for the housing market as it could portend fewer defaults and foreclosures down the road.

The percentage of American single-family homes with mortgages in negative equity fell to 21.5 percent in the second quarter from 23.3 percent in the first quarter and 23 percent a year ago, according to the Zillow Real Estate Market Reports.

These underwater mortgages are one of the biggest banes of homeowners since negative equity makes many of them unqualified for home loan refinancing and prevents some from selling.

Read more from Reuters by Julie Haviv

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Administration Plans Mortgage Aid

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration plans to set up an emergency loan program for the unemployed and a government mortgage refinancing effort in the next few weeks to help homeowners after home sales dropped in July, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said.

Read more from Business Week

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Million Dollar Homes Find Buyers

The appetite for million-dollar plus homes grew a little stronger in the Albany, N.Y., region this year.

Eight houses costing $1 million or more sold during the first half of this year, compared to six in the first half of last year through the Capital Region Multiple Listing Service.

The highest-price paid this year was for a five-bedroom, five-bath, two half-bath Colonial in Loudonville, which sold for $1.88 million in June.

That was followed by a two-bedroom, two-and-a-half bath condo in Saratoga Springs ($1.44 million); another two-bedroom, two-and-a-half bath condo in Saratoga Springs ($1.35 million); a four-bedroom, four-bath, two half-bath custom-built house in Saratoga Springs ($1.29 million) and a three-bedroom, two-bath house in Queensbury ($1.27 million).

Read more: Million dollar homes find buyers - The Business Review (Albany)

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The Best Moves for Home Buyers and Sellers

Plenty of forces, from overly cautious lenders to inaccurate appraisals, are wrecking real estate deals right now. But one of the biggest roadblocks to getting a house sold these days is the disconnect between buyers and sellers.

In general, sellers have gotten more realistic in pricing their homes than they were right after the housing bubble burst, but agents say that many still don't grasp how much they must concede to close a deal. And buyers are still spraying lowball offers around in hopes that sellers will be desperate enough to bite.

Take such unreasonable expectations, multiply by two, and what do you get? "A standoff," says Glenn Kelman, CEO of real estate brokerage Redfin.

With the busy summer home-sale season drawing to a close, there's little time to waste. Whether you're trying to unload your place or land a new one, follow these dos and don'ts to negotiate the best deal -- fast.

If you're buying don't say: "I'll pay 85% of your asking price and not a penny more."

Instead: Look for homes that are fairly priced and make a reasonable offer. "Coming in about 10% below list is a good starting place for negotiations now," says Denver real estate broker Jeff Fogler. Yes, you have the upper hand in most markets, but the average homebuyer is paying only 2.7% below list price (see the chart). Set your expectations accordingly. You can always ask if the seller is willing to bridge a price gap in other ways -- for example, by picking up your closing costs (which can run $7,500 on a $300,000 house).

Read more from CNN Money by Beth Braverman

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Mortgage Rates and Trends

The link to up to the minute New York State mortgage information seems to work better than presenting the actual graph. Click for up to the minute mortgage rate information

Buyers' versus Sellers' Market Report

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The graph above shows the number of sales in a given month divided by the number of homes on the market in the four main counties of the Capital Region.

August sales figures show a reversal into buyer territory. This is a direct result of the large number of properties on the market (5137) and the lack of buyers since the Stimulus expired.

*This ratio can be used to determine whether we are in a buyers' or sellers' market as indicated in Dennis Maier's article on Market Timing featured in eZine Real Estate. In general, if it would (theoretically) take less than 6 1/2 months to sell the current inventory it's a sellers' market. If it would take more than 9 months to sell all the homes on the market it's a buyers' market.

Market Statistics as of September 1, 2010

The average list and sale prices for the month of August 2010 show a continuation of the current appreciating market. But while prices have increased, they have not attained heights seen in 2008.

The average asking price to sale price has decreased slightly from 97.06% in July to 96.53% for August. The number of sales at 366 is way down from 481 last month. Just wait until this stat reached the news around the end of the month. Undoubtably, we're in for some more alarmist headlines.

a note about the Skinny video (below left). The data used for our immediate update is calculated as of the first day of the month while other sources such as the Greater Capital Region of Realtors uses final stats compiled much later. In addition, the Skinny reports data from the entire Capital Region MLS rather than the four main counties, as is reported above.

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